RICHARDSON: And so I think that—you know, you talked about future technologies, future of the force. SANGER: —a North Korea that could actually put a nuclear weapon on a short-range missile. RICHARDSON: Well, I think, you know, the point to be made is that—and, you know, we talk about this in the tank quite a bit—is that every one of these conflicts now is sort of transregional, right? And he’s truly an expert on our—on our nuclear submarine force, holds a master’s degree in electrical engineering from MIT. Podcast RICHARDSON: You know, I would just echo what Mark said, is that in many ways, particularly in the undersea forces, Russia never really took a break. Unless you don't pay any attention to the news and, we guess, skipped the previous entries, you probably already know that the military has a problem with sexual assault. They’re going to do fine. But it’s never going to be—in my lifetime, it will not be—which is about 30 years—(laughter)—it will not be a huge, huge shift, because we’re still figuring out how to use these things. We’ve got radars. Is it more Marines? ), WELSH: Probably not—(laughter)—although you’d all look really good sitting in it, just like we do. December 21, 2020 Who wants to take that? Military officers behaving badly have been making headlines. We can use them to actually target. by Matthias Matthijs MILLEY: Well, I don’t think it’s a state secret that the Iranians are in Iraq with a variety of capabilities that they have. Pure evidence that recidivism lives out here, that you guys were willing to come back. It’s just a pure advocacy for that system. This would be directed to General Milley. Tell us a little bit about how we’re thinking differently today, if at all, about the contingency of being once again the conflict on the Korean Peninsula. And if you think—you know, there a lot of analogies that are made between nuclear and cyber, for example. I am Dris Tanakes (ph) from a consulting firm here in town and also a lieutenant, ex, from the U.S. Navy. And it’s going to be spectacular to watch where it goes, but it doesn’t necessarily go bigger. I mean, I think the only people that are questioning NATO are Americans. SANGER: Would that do the trick if the South Koreans agreed to take it? We can use them to observe quality and pattern of life. A long time ago I was in OSD. They are the same across the services and are all related: Declining budgets require significant force structure cuts. Q: Thank you, gentlemen. Of the 70,000 recruited, 10 to 12 percent required waivers of existing “standards” and 1.9 percent were Category IV (CAT IV) recruits who scored between the 10th and 31st percentile on the Army’s aptitude test. My personal observation is I don’t see that. Other decisions will fall from that, because the nation that puts certainty into uncertain situations has an advantage. And I should also say that all five have been read their Miranda rights. He’s had that job now for about two years. Soviet forces were already there. And so I think both, you know, aircraft, ships, you know, ready to execute those as they fit into the plan. Build quiet subs and put them in the straits. I’d be remiss also if I didn’t mention that we just gave up one of our own here to work in tandem with two of these five men, and that’s former Senior Fellow Janine Davidson, who was recently sworn in as the 32nd undersecretary of the Navy. But, rather than a sign of widespread corruption, the fact that they're being caught and disciplined is … Edited by: A. N. Vladimir Putin said this week that he remains committed to moving to an all-volunteer military, even though budgetary stringencies have slowed the process. They had infrastructure. And so, you know, this cyber dimension is—. (Laughter.). WELSH: Thank you, sir. And, to me, the most impressive statistic at all, half of whom have gone on to the rank of general or admiral. We are. It depends, though, if you get into a large exchange, God forbid. SANGER: When I was in South Korea there was, of course, a lot of debate about getting the South Koreans to adopt, very quickly, a THAAD system that would—, SANGER: —help against the threat that K.T. The Trump administration leaves a legacy of confusion over cybersecurity issues with few positives. RICHARDSON: I’d like to comment just a little bit. But you were at the University of Virginia, so you can talk about Thomas Jefferson every time the MIT thing comes up, right? And I wondered if you could elaborate a little more, without going into battle plans, what—you know, are you going to have enough Sunnis to carry the day, or what will happen if they’re all Shiites and they come into Sunni territory? So tell us a little bit about, as you look forward to the size of the force and where we deploy them in the next few years, what are you seeing? General Neller, you talked about North Korea having nuclear weapons and just really it’s a matter of time before they get delivery vehicles to deliver them to nearby and potentially even to the United States. SANGER: Admiral Zukunft, there’s been a lot of discussion that is actually in some ways a better role for the Coast Guard, yours and others around the world. Many countries in the world are engulfed by war. Today I’ve got probably in the neighborhood of 15 tons of pure, uncut cocaine on ships deploying in this area today—whole of government, intel-driving operations—but two years ago we had four ships down there. Consider the arithmetic. New questions regarding financial and human resources. NELLER: Well, I think the first thing we have to do is be able to protect ourselves and protect our citizens and protect our allies. The start of the First World War, D-Day and let it not be forgotten that 22nd June marked the 70th anniversary of the lifting of the siege of Kohima. They give us very broad authorities. And when you look at the overall amount of money it is, it’s really—it’s nothing. And that’s why we can’t fix this. And the current leader has taken that to the next level. By: Summer Minger. I hope we keep this tradition going for many years more. by Richard N. Haass SANGER: China is a long-term challenge, for the reasons we’ve discussed. And so if you look at—if you want to study the United States, really it’s like going back to Mahan. They’re concerned. And the concern is you cut right through the cables, you cut a lot of communications right away. And so we are where we are, doing what we’re doing. But what we’re seeing is that China Coast Guard is on the frontline, provoking our United States Navy. MILLEY: We’re going to see this movie again. In late 2017, the Army’s Center for Initial Military Training began a study to look into improving the quality of recruits, both in discipline and physical fitness. 2009-10-03 16:02:54 2009-10-03 16:02:54. A propitious year, it might be supposed, to consider the future of land warfare. So the Army chaplains are out there. What is the appropriate force structure in the Navy when combined with the joint force that can take on the missions that we’ve been assigned, including Russia, including ISIS, some of those forces that weren’t even on the table the last time we did this? SANGER: Well, we’re in the midst of a campaign that may actually be addressing that some in the next few months. I didn’t realize you were doing to do it while you were here. MILLEY: We do that in the tank all the time as well. So we’re trying to do a very difficult balance here. From a grand-strategy perspective, what this question and what John just said highlights the fact that whether it’s Chinese expansionism or Russian buffering or cyber or it’s hybrid warfare, it all creates uncertainty. SANGER: So that includes the Reserve and the Guard. NATO is responding to this changing dynamic in Europe. Can anyone here name eight out of the 10 most violent countries in the world? Let’s develop a fully developed air campaign to get at all of those and then, you know, extend it ever beyond that so that we’re looking at every tool that we’ve got to really, you know, as the president wants us to do, is to crush this enemy. It became an alliance of choice as nations saw the benefits of being a member. War and terrorism. ZUKUNFT: Well, first and foremost, I have an open and frank dialogue with my counterpart in China. We think it is. SANGER: Well, I want to thank all five of you. And it’s correct that there’s going to have to be some Sunni ground force. Enemy combatants, both at the lower level but more importantly at the leadership level, have been significantly attrited. The service chiefs address domain and region-specific challenges facing the United States today. Field Marshal Sanger, as you know—(laughter)—is the national security correspondent for The New York Times, where he’s been for some three decades now. SANGER: And even without simultaneity, you have the pivot. SANGER: Yeah, who’s often on this stage as well. But I thought Robert Haddick did a very good job articulating that in his book “Fire on the Water.”. WELSH: None of us know that answer, David. So I’m hoping to speak not only about what’s going on today, but where they see the military headed. NELLER: Well, since I’ve been in service, Korea was always the big fight, or potentially the big fight, because of the politics involved and the aggressive nature of the North Koreans, regardless of who the leader was. Of the many hurdles military veterans face in America today, they name adjusting back to everyday life as the most significant challenge. And I think whatever they’re doing now, they are still a very capable military and they clearly have shown an intent to be disruptive, at least in the region. You know, I’ve fought a fair amount of time over there. MILLEY: That’s a great question for the Navy. MILLEY: He’s a little green man. Thank you, Richard. Our military veterans have seen it … It’s kept the peace in Europe since the end of World War II. NATO was an alliance of necessity when it began. And so it’s something we have to be concerned about in the future. (Laughter.) There’s no shortage of issues to discuss, from a Middle East that continues to unravel to new security concerns in Europe and Asia. (Laughter.). This aligns with previous research to the same effect, in particular a report published in the U.S. Army War College Quarterly, Parameters: “The Case for Megacities.” The authors make the case that, “The Army m… SANGER: And how does that change the calculus? Would lowering the age of recruitment fix the military’s recruiting worries? SANGER: You’re going to go down to at least 450(,000). Over the past 18 years of “endless war,” the Pentagon has adopted numerous measures to prop up the AVF. But it’s their fight. Sign up for the Early Bird Brief - a daily roundup of military and defense news stories from around the globe. General Milley of the Army, who I think you heard before is now the 39th chief of staff of the Army. You add it all together and you connect those dots, that’s a fundamentally different external behavior of a nation state. So we think that’s the way to go. Because some of the most violent crime, believe it or not, is in our backyard. Could you move them back across the border? I mean, that’s just sort of at the macro scale—you know, your father went up—his job off of Okinawa was the fighter director who was the person who vectored fighters in to go against the kamikaze threat, which was the only thing in World War II that Admiral Nimitz said he did not anticipate by virtue of his participation in the war games in Newport, right, that resulted in War Plan Orange. First, thank you for being here and taking your time do this. WELSH: I don’t think it’ll be a whole lot more than that 10 years from now. And so that, I think, is the first mission there, is to preserve our ability to do that, preserve our access through that part of the world. Now, the first vaccines are being distributed, spurring hope that the pandemic’s end is in sight. (Laughter.). There is no doubt that there is a serious problem in manning the American military. The team has sort of stood up, organized, and—organized their defenses to become very capable in this. On October 29, the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence welcomed Blue Star Families to Brookings to discuss their 2015 Annual Military Family Lifestyle Survey, an … But let’s start with today. And previous to that he was commander of the Coast Guard Pacific area. (Applause.) So they’re looking at, rather than go peer-to-peer, it’s almost an asymmetrical approach to what the strengths of our military is to build that up. You’ve gotten to the point—and correct me if I’m wrong on this—you probably have more pilots in training for unmanned aircraft than you did for manned aircraft. Now, it doesn’t appear to be a very stable and safe place because there are people doing nefarious things out there, but I would just suggest, if we weren’t there, what else would they be doing if we weren’t out there to monitor their activities and kind of keep an eye on things? I also think it helps explain why the military is one of the most professional and one of the most respected institutions in American society. Q: Thank you. But in a previous job I actually had to kind of break open the books and learn about this, so I would say, without getting into the details, that we have a very capable ballistic missile defense. SANGER: Yeah. For example, suicide rates among veterans continue to soar. I wanted to remind everybody that the meeting is on the record. MILLEY: It’s been very effective—very effective, as pointed out, for seven decades. And we came up with a campaign plan. And, General, I just want to say thank you not just for tonight, but for what you’ve done for this country over the many decades. So our adversaries—not necessarily North Korea but other countries like Iran—have developed a very large inventory of short-, medium-range missiles that are just conventional weaponry, but they could very easily overwhelm, you know, a certain number of Patriot batteries or other capabilities that have a capability to shoot them down. So they are performing. SANGER: Just one or two last things and then we’re going to open it up to all of you. So how did they get that way? Common Issues Facing Veterans. ), Domestic Terrorism Strikes U.S. Capitol, and Democracy, In Brief We’ve got to build in an inherent agility and adaptability. So we doubled the numbers. They’re actioning targets. SANGER: I wanted to talk a little bit about another considerable adversary, one that you’re facing in the Pacific. Edward Alden, CFR’s Bernard L. Schwartz senior fellow specializing in U.S. economic competitiveness, trade, and immigration policy, and Jennifer Hillman, senior fellow for trade and international political economy at CFR, sit down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the incoming Biden administration’s likely approach to trade policy. Thus, the Army had a quantity and a quality failure, despite offering unprecedented enlistment “bonuses” that are disproportionately attractive to the lower socio-economic classes. What Is the World Doing to Distribute COVID-19 Vaccines? And if that happens, then there is a chance, which is why you see, I believe, our government supporting Prime Minister Abadi and trying to bolster him, because he appears at the present time to have the best potential to create a state that supports all Iraqi people. So that’s why, in the Navy, we’re running those numbers again. And there are climatologists today that say the fuse has already been lit. This year is redolent with anniversaries. They deserve the sacraments. In addition to the measures noted above, numerous pundits, consultants, think tankers and military personnel professionals have recommended measures to enhance recruiting. And if you go out there during what they call king tides, they’re nearly up to their ankles in water. Majuro, 70,000 people. So it’s very clever, very insidious, and it’s—you know, as you said, it’s war without war. And they work closely with a variety of the Shia groups and they have a fair amount of influence. RICHARDSON: He read the book and he saw the movie. You know, when you travel around, you go to Iraq—and there’s people that don’t like us but, I mean, you’ve been around the world. SANGER: But you do consider it a normal tool. by Bruce Hoffman December 30, 2020. As long as that happens, we’re fine. And they are out there. With respect to the tradeoff between, you know, numbers versus capability, it is—it’s a false choice, I think, a little bit when you think about, you know, we need to provide maritime security and credible options to our decision makers. SANGER: These guys are going to have to take sides, yeah. Do you agree with that after your—. The European Union and the United Kingdom came to a last-minute trade deal on Christmas Eve, narrowly averting the hardest of all potential Brexits. First I’d like to just endorse everything that’s been said, particularly—you must have read those books a couple of times. There’s a lot of concern that something could go wrong along the way, that somebody could get a little hot-headed. Whereas China, Russia are more our traditional kinds of threats. And then this summer I’ll take members of the Arctic Caucus, members of Senate, climatologists, and we’re going to go out to what’s called the Jakobshavn Glacier—Jakobshavn with a “J” by the way. And from a grand-strategy perspective, instead of worrying about what China might be, Russia might be, where cyber might go, it’s helpful if the United States of America decides clearly what we are going to be 50 years from now. So we have sea-based interceptors. “As the Navy … They may get smaller. MILLEY: Well, for the Army they’re just—you mentioned going down to 450(,000). All of us together—and it’s a whole of government—it’s a joint force, whole of government with allies. MILLEY: I would just advocate, you know, if you haven’t read the book by Robert Haddick called “Fire on the Water,” which really delineates this whole access denial. MILLEY: Red Sox to win the series. SANGER: Follow that for a second and tell us a little bit about what kind of Iranian presence you see, whether it’s changed much since the Iranian nuclear accord, whether you’ve seeing as much activity as you did before then. They’re in Anbar. 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